Here we go!!!!
The NJSIAA XC Meet of Champions, the greatest single event in NJ high school sports, will celebrate its 52nd running on Saturday when the state's best clash on the hallowed grounds of Holmdel Park in what has all the makings of an electrifying instant classic!!!
The boys race is scheduled for 11 a.m. and the girls at 12 p.m.
I can promise you that there will be lots of sparks and fireworks flying in these races when the state's best start cooking and running shoulder-to-shoulder on the legendary 3.1-mile layout. Some of the fastest times in course history are expected to be thrown down.
The top storylines to follow are the CBA and Union Catholic girls each seeking a three-peat, the chase for a sub-15, the boys course record average is a virtual lock to get smashed, and a pair of great individual showdowns are on tap.
BOYS RACE
There are three big questions in the boys race. Will CBA top what they did that week? Can anyone hang with defending champion Joe Barrett of CBA? And will we see a sub-15?!
The answer to the first question is yes!!!! As for the second question, that remains to be seen. How about a sub-15? There is a good chance it will happen!!!
Time to get into each one of those questions.
Let's dig into the team race first.
CBA, ranked No. 1 in NJ and No. 2 in the US, comes into this race as probably the biggest favorite in meet history and a lock to extend its state record to 27 titles (the rest of the state has won a combined 24 there was no scoring at the first meet in 1972 and Covid knocked the meet out in 2020). That's not a knock on the other teams competing, but rather an indication of just how historically great this CBA team is. There has never been a team like this in NJ history. There is still lots of work to be done, but this CBA pack has all the pieces necessary to win the Nike National Championships next month. Time will tell.
Coach Sean McCafferty's CBA squad has blitzed every team it has raced and torched every course it has run on this season, breaking course record averages at Bowdoin Park, Ocean County Park, and Holmdel Park!!
In the State Non-Public A race last week at Holmdel, CBA ran a course record 15:50, threw down a perfect score when it swept the top seven places, and became the first team to ever put five guys under 16 in a single race at Holmdel. And they were holding back for much of the race!
So just how fast are they going to run when they let it rip on Saturday!!?
With Barrett chasing a sub-15 up front, there's no doubt CBA's average will be well under 15:50. Could they get close to 15:40 or even under?? Keep in mind that the winning times in 24 of the Meet of Champions races were 15:40 or slower. CBA could potentially average under that! Imagine that!! This team has so much firepower that anything really is possible. CBA should put 5 guys under 16 for the second straight week, and it may even outscore the rest of the state.
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SUB 15 COULD HAPPEN
Now, about the potential for a sub-15.
Joe Barrett and his future college teammate at the University of North Carolina, Luke Pash of Ridgewood, are the top two ranked runners in the state. After their victories last week (Barrett in Non-Public A in 15:35) and Pash (Group 4 at 15:52), they both said they feel a sub-15 is possible.
Barrett, who ran 15:27 to win this race last year, is seeking to become just the 8th boy and the fourth from the Shore Conference to win back-to-back titles. Devin Hart of Point Pleasant Boro (2017-18) is the last boy to repeat.
Only two runners have ever dipped under that magical number, Edward Cheserek of St. Benedict's Prep (14:53 in 2011) and Joe Rosa of West Windsor-Plainsboro North (14:56 in 2009). There is a reason why it took 30 years for the first sub-15 to be run at Holmdel (the current course has been used since 1979) and why just two guys have ever run that fast. IT'S HARD TO DO!!!
In order to join Cheserek and Rosa, Barrett and Pash will have to make huge drops. Barrett has a Holmdel PR of 15:21, No. 10 in course history that he ran to win the Non-Public A title last year, and Pash ran his Holmdel PR of 15:41 when he was third in Group 4 last year.
At first glance, it may seem like too much to ask to slice that much time of their PRs, but a deeper dive shows why it can happen.
Barrett's 15:35 last week came after he held back for two miles before blasting a 4:10 final mile. And when Barrett opened his season at Bowdoin Park in late September, he ran 15:25. The conversion from slower Bowdon to Holmdel has historically been right around 25 seconds! As a junior, Barrett ran 15:50 at Bowdoin and 15:21 at Holmdel.
As for Pash, he had a lot more in the tank last week when he sat on Clay Stevens of Manalapan for most of the race before unleashing the state's most feared kick- Pash ran 4:04.49 to win the 1,600 at the outdoor Meet of Champions last June).
While the talent and the drive to go sub-15 is there, it can't happen without the right pace. Cheserek's splits were 5:01/9:52 and Rosa was 5:07/9:55. Both studs closed in 5:01.
So look for the first mile on Saturday to be under 5:10, and if anyone hits the second mile in sub-10, look out!!!! Cheserek's record would then be in jeopardy.
Like many big showdowns, styles make for great races.
Some other things to keep in mind - only eight runners have ever run under 15:20 on Holmdel's current course, which has been used since 1978. The record for the most runners going sub-16 in one race at Holmdel is 18, which happened at the 2013 Meet of Champions. There will be 11 sub-16 runners in the race on Saturday, and several guys who ran between 16:00 and 16:10 last week!! So there's a good chance that record could be broken.
UC AIMS FOR HISTORY
Much like the boys race, Union Catholic, No. 1 in the state and No. 7 in the nation, is a huge favorite as the Vikings seek their third straight title and aim to become just the third program in state history to win at least three straight titles. Red Bank Catholic won five straight from 1972-76 and three straight from 1994-96, and North Hunterdon captured four in a row from 1983-86 and three consecutive championships from 2017-19).
UC has the state's most potent 1-2 punch with sophomores Paige Sheppard and Cayleigh Kaiser, and a strong group of underclassmen behind them that have fused together to form a juggernaut. UC, which set the course record average with an 18:37 a the M of C last year, will be bolstered by the return of junior Kayla Devine, who is back and ready to rip after being out since mid-September.
the Vikings have a lethal pack.
Looking for a team that could make a run at UC?
No. 2 ranked Princeton, who won its first Group 4 title last week, is the best of the rest. Also keep an eye on No. 3 Ridgewood, No. 4 Rumson, the Group 2 champ, and No. 5 Colts Neck, the Group 3 winner. And don't forget about Ocean City, who had an off race last week when it was third in Group 3. Ocean City was ranked No. 2 for most of the season and is capable of a huge bounce-back race.
Make no mistake about it, UC should win again and complete the hat trick.
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SHEPPARD VS. GORDON
Paige Sheppard of Union Catholic and Liliah Gordon of Northern Burlington, the only sub-18 runners at Holmdel who will tie the line, have been on a collision course for this title since the preseason and they should produce some eye-popping times as the top two ranked runners in NJ square off for the first time this season.
The undefeated Sheppard, second by just a couple of steps last year to Emma Zawatski of Freehold Township, has been fueled all season by that runner-up finish. Sheppard comes into this race as the favorite based on the sophomore course record of 17:41, No. 9 in course history, that she ran at the Shore Coaches Invitational last month. Sheppard avenged her loss to Zawatski when she won the 1,600 at the Indoor Meet of Champions last March, but she feels she needs to win the crown jewel of NJ XC to get the redemption she's been seeking.
Gordon, who is committed to Penn State, is equally hungry to win as she aims for the first M of C title of her career after multiple close finishes. Gordon has finished in the top 10 in the XC Meet of Champions in every season. During her remarkable career, Gordon finished 8th as a freshman, 7th as a sophomore, and 5th as a junior at the M of C. And last indoor season, Gordon finished second in the 3,200 at the Indoor Meet of Champions, finishing just .05 behind Rosemary Shay of Middletown South, 10:26.44 to 10:26.49.
Gordon, a Foot Locker National finalist last year, is coming off her best race ever at Holmdel when she took control of the Group 3 race in the second mile and pulled away as she hammered out her third straight state title with a time of 17:58, a 16 second Holmdel PR for her and No. 25 all-time at Holmdel.
Gordon knows she will have to make another big drop, and she's confident that she's ready to do that.
How low will they go?
There have only been five girls to ever run under 17:30 at Holmdel. Will that number grow?
That's one of many questions that will be answered on Saturday, which promises to be one of the best XC days in state history!!!
Good luck to everyone!!
Time to level up!!!
Get ur PR's on!!
Get ur NJ XC on!!!
PREDICTIONS
BOYS
TEAM: CBA wins and averages under 15:40
INDIVIDUAL: Barrett wins in 14:58!!! Pash goes 15:15 for second.
GIRLS
TEAM: Union Catholic wins and averages around 18:50
INDIVIDUAL: Sheppard goes sub 17:30 for the win. Gordon runs sub 17:50 for second.